As Howard Dean announced plans to seat Florida delegates at the convention, the Clinton campaign heard the sound of the final nails being driven into the campaign coffin. For months now Hillary has been fighting to get those delegates seated, and Dean has been adamant that it isn't going to happen. Why would Dean now predict that they will be seated? Because his job is to make sure that whoever the Democratic candidate is, that they have the best chance of winning in the general election in November. Blowing off a state with 27 electoral votes doesn't bode well for November. Democratic voters there may decide that if the party doesn't want their votes in August, maybe they just won't vote in November either.
But Dean has another problem, if winning without Florida is difficult, winning without the black vote is impossible. I do not remember where I heard this, but I have heard that the Democrats must have 90% of the black vote in order to win the presidency. While that sounds like a lot, the Democrats have had no problem reaching that bar in recent years. But this could be the year that changes if the black community perceives that the first viable black presidential candidate had the nomination taken away from him and given to a white candidate. Seating the Florida delegation after initially saying they would not be seated would smell of changing the rules in the middle of the game. If the Florida delegation produces enough votes to put Hillary over the top, there is the probability that many black voters would either vote for McCain or sit out the election. This would spell almost certain defeat for the Democrats in November.
So why would Dean do an about face now? In the last two weeks Clinton's lead in Pennsylvania polls has dropped from 15% to about 5%. In the wake of being caught lying about being under sniper fire in Bosnia, while simultaneously insulting the military that provided a safe arrival for the then first lady and daughter, her polls are dropping like a rock. And as the polls go, so goes the money. At one time Clinton was raising $1 million a day. In March she raised only about 2/3 of that, $20 million. While $20 million is nothing to sneeze at, it is only half of the $40 million raised by Obama. Howard Dean has seen the handwriting on the wall. Obama's lead is now such that the delegation can be seated safely without a danger of defeating Obama and losing the black vote.
Will Hillary also see this handwriting on the wall and get out? Not a chance. In her mind the nomination has been her's ever since Al Gore was defeated in 2000. Her power is more important to her than her party or even her country. She is incensed that her coronation has gone awry, and will do anything to right the ship. She will try every smear and dirty trick in the book to wrestle power back. This will likely help only McCain as she continues to bloody up Obama between now and August. It won't win her back the nomination. She's just rearranging deck chairs on the proverbial sinking ship.
But Dean has another problem, if winning without Florida is difficult, winning without the black vote is impossible. I do not remember where I heard this, but I have heard that the Democrats must have 90% of the black vote in order to win the presidency. While that sounds like a lot, the Democrats have had no problem reaching that bar in recent years. But this could be the year that changes if the black community perceives that the first viable black presidential candidate had the nomination taken away from him and given to a white candidate. Seating the Florida delegation after initially saying they would not be seated would smell of changing the rules in the middle of the game. If the Florida delegation produces enough votes to put Hillary over the top, there is the probability that many black voters would either vote for McCain or sit out the election. This would spell almost certain defeat for the Democrats in November.
So why would Dean do an about face now? In the last two weeks Clinton's lead in Pennsylvania polls has dropped from 15% to about 5%. In the wake of being caught lying about being under sniper fire in Bosnia, while simultaneously insulting the military that provided a safe arrival for the then first lady and daughter, her polls are dropping like a rock. And as the polls go, so goes the money. At one time Clinton was raising $1 million a day. In March she raised only about 2/3 of that, $20 million. While $20 million is nothing to sneeze at, it is only half of the $40 million raised by Obama. Howard Dean has seen the handwriting on the wall. Obama's lead is now such that the delegation can be seated safely without a danger of defeating Obama and losing the black vote.
Will Hillary also see this handwriting on the wall and get out? Not a chance. In her mind the nomination has been her's ever since Al Gore was defeated in 2000. Her power is more important to her than her party or even her country. She is incensed that her coronation has gone awry, and will do anything to right the ship. She will try every smear and dirty trick in the book to wrestle power back. This will likely help only McCain as she continues to bloody up Obama between now and August. It won't win her back the nomination. She's just rearranging deck chairs on the proverbial sinking ship.
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